Week 25 - The Law of Probability Part 1

At my visit to discuss the results of the CT scan I had in March 2022, my oncologist said when opening the door, “Your scan looks exceptionally good, and I suggest you take the next 3 months off from infusions. We will take another CT scan then and see if anything has changed. This is what I would do if I were the patient.” I gladly accepted the oncologist’s recommendation to suspend treatment for the next 3 months, with a scan after the break. He did also say, “I’m obligated to tell you that there is a 5% chance that the tumors in the liver might become resistant to the chemo during this time and further treatment with those drugs might not work.” But honestly, any prediction I have gotten in the past 12 years that had a single digit chance of happening to my health status was the probability that something good would happen. I saw this as a 95% probability that I would get good news in three months, not a 5% chance that it would be bad news.

In May 2022 I had another CT scan, which turned out even better than the previous one, despite the fact I had not been infused during that three-month period. So, another three- month sabbatical was granted (thank you, Lord) and 3 months later I had another scan (end of August 2022), and... well, not so good. A large mass (6cm (about 2.36 in) by 6.5 cm) was in the distal end of my pancreas. A biopsy showed it was LMS, which had returned with a vengeance, and surgery was planned for November.

In the pre-surgery visit, my surgeon at Indiana University Hospital told me that he would be telling 99 out of 100 people who came to him with this condition and medical history that he was sorry, but there was nothing that could be done, and that I should make plans to go to hospice. However, after talking with my oncologist in South Bend and reviewing my unusual record, he said he would do the surgery. Once again, God was going before me to create a path to keep me alive against all odds (“I will go before you and will level the mountains...” Isaiah 45:2). The miracle surgery was successful (remember, I was the 1% patient that would get the surgery) and saved my life. The lesson I had learned over this lengthy battle with an incurable cancer was that while the probability of good medical outcomes might go up or down, but God has a perfect attendance record in being present throughout this journey.

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